A Middle East War Might Be Extremely Costly For Certain Automakers

Toyota Motor, Hyundai Motor, and Chinese automakers such as Chery face the biggest potential losses from a US-Israeli war with Iran, according to an analysis by Bernstein.

Those car manufacturers hold a third of the market in the Middle East, led by Toyota with 17%, Hyundai with 10%, and Chery with 5%. In Iran specifically, domestic car manufacturers Iran Khodro and SAIPA lead the way, followed by Chery with a 6% market share. Other Chinese carmakers are also expected to be affected as the Middle East has become a growing destination for Chinese car exports. Bernstein reported, citing Chinese export data, that the region accounted for about 17% of China’s passenger vehicle exports in 2025.

Bernstein’s report highlights that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices will have domino effects on the global automotive industry. So, in the long term, everyone will be affected, and in the short term, the listed manufacturers will have a large market in the Middle East.

It also noted that of the European automakers, Stellantis has the most exposure given its overall problems. Stellantis practically abandoned the electric strategy and returned to big V8 engines in the US, and now fuel prices are rising, which calls the new strategy into question.

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